Thought that this was worth sharing since we are all keenly interested in how long this SELLER'S MARKET can last..... Al
won't be a buyer's market until 2020, but home price growth has slowed
in more than half of the nation's largest metros, according to the study (byPatrick KearnsStaff Writer Aug 27)
The industry may not see a buyer’s market until at least 2020, according to a majority of real estate economists surveyed by Zillow and Pulsenomics LLC.
In the real estate technology company’s latest “2018 Q3 Zillow Home
Price Expectations Survey,” more than 75 percent of approximately 100
economists surveyed predicted the market won’t favor buyers until 2020
at the earliest.
“For the past several years, home sellers held all the cards at the
negotiating table, fielding multiple offers while buyers faced stiff
competition and a fast-moving market,” said Aaron Terrazas,
Zillow’s senior economist. “Conditions are starting to show signs of
easing up, but the effects of years of limited construction still
“Inventory is still falling on an annual basis, and home values are
growing well above their historic pace,” Terrazas added. “Although these
trends are starting to lose their edge, it is far too soon to call it a
Home value appreciation
has been faster in 2018 than in 2017, according to Zillow’s data.
Inventory has also dropped on a year-over-year basis for 42 consecutive
months – signs that the market is firmly in favor of sellers.
Home growth is slowing in more than half of the nation’s 35 largest
metros, with price cuts becoming more common. Even in markets where
appreciation has slowed, prices remain high
and sellers continue to have the upper hand, according to Zillow. Home
values are also expected to rise an additional 5.9 percent in 2018,
according to the data.
While more than 75 percent of respondents believe a buyer’s market
won’t emerge until 2020 at the earliest, 43 percent of respondents
believe the market will shift towards buyers in 2020. Regionally,
economists believe the Midwest will start to favor buyers before other regions.
“While ongoing supply constraints are reinforcing the floor on home
prices right now, the experts’ forecasts still imply the joists will
start to crack sometime next year, and result in sub-three percent
annual home-value appreciation in 2020 and beyond,” said Terry Loebs,
the founder of Pulsenomics LLC, the research and economists firm that
conducted the Zillow sponsored the survey.
“For the first time, a majority of the experts said that there is
downside risk to their long-term outlook for home values nationally –
and they outnumber experts who assigned upside risk to their forecasts
by more than a three-to-one ratio,” Loebs added.
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